Warning for Labour as party runs fourth in rural Wales

Labour is trailing in fourth place in rural Wales ahead of the next Senedd election, according to a Censuswide poll commissioned by the Country Land and Business Association (CLA).

Polling of more than 1,000 people across Wales’s most rural seats shows Labour in fourth place (13.5%), behind Plaid Cymru (22.3%), Reform (16.7%) and the Green Party (14.5%). Those seats are home to roughly a third of the population.

The problem starts with Labour’s own voters. Nearly one in three traditional Labour voters say they will not back the party at the next Senedd election. Fewer than half (47%) of Labour voters say they are “happy” with how they voted at the last election.

Among respondents who say they would not consider voting Labour, 20% cite the party’s performance in Westminster as their main reason, level with concern over the cost of living. Farming and rural policy follows at 15%.

Trust on economic growth is fragmented, suggesting gains to be made by any party with an ambitious plan for the countryside. Plaid Cymru leads on 27%, with Reform on 19%, while Labour, the Conservatives and the Greens are tightly grouped in the low teens.

Victoria Bond, Director CLA Cymru, said: “Rural Wales is not being listened to. A third of the country lives outside the cities, yet too many feel shut out of the decisions that shape their lives.

“Families are being priced out of their own villages. Long-standing businesses are under strain. Planning rules block growth before it begins. It is getting harder to stay and harder to build a future.

“The countryside is not owned by any party. It is there to be won. Any party with a serious plan for rural Wales will find support. Those who treat it as a nice place for a walk will not.”

The cost of living tops rural voters’ concerns, cited by 37%. In the countryside, distance costs money. People drive further for work, school and shopping. Public transport is more limited and fuel bills are higher.

Almost as many point to a lack of jobs and opportunities. In many parts of rural Wales, work is concentrated in farming, tourism and small local firms, leaving fewer routes into stable, well-paid employment.

Affordable housing follows at 33%, where demand pushes prices beyond local earnings. And around a quarter of those polled cite planning delays, rural crime and weak broadband connectivity. Taken together, the results centre on jobs, housing and infrastructure rather than party politics.

The polling also reveals mounting frustration with parties’ understanding of rural areas. Less than half of voters say Labour (45%), Reform (45%) and the Green Party (49.6%) understand and respect rural areas. Plaid Cymru, which performs best, is trusted by 63%.

Ahead of the Senedd election in May, the CLA is calling for a cross-government Rural Economic Strategy, to unlock growth across agriculture, planning, skills and tourism.

This includes expanding permitted development rights to accelerate new homes and business space, guaranteeing long-term funding for the Sustainable Farming Scheme so farmers can invest with confidence, and setting a National Rural Tourism Strategy that drives year-round demand and supports local jobs beyond the summer peak.

The CLA is also calling for a Rural Development Unit to lead this work, with statutory powers to align long-term funding, regulation, planning and skills to kickstart the rural economy.